Originally posted at tcktcktck.org
If the US and China were to adopt global best practice in their domestic climate policies, together, the world’s two largest emitters could close the 2020 emissions gap by 23%, according to new research.
In new analysis, the Climate Action Tracker – a joint programme by Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Pik Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – showed that by swiftly enacting deep cuts in energy from high-carbon fuels, the two countries could reduce emissions by 2.8 gigatonnes by 2020.
Jointly responsible for 35% of global emissions, this could significantly close the “emissions gap” – the difference between cuts needed to keep below 2ºC of warming and that current pledged by governments – according to the new research.
Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, said:
The US and China produce 35% of global emissions and have been making efforts to work with each other on climate change. If they scaled up action to adopt the most ambitious policies from across the world, they would both be on the right pathway to keep warming below 2ºC.
This needs to include dramatically reducing their use of coal, in order to achieve the deep decarbonisation needed of getting C02 emissions from coal back to 1990 levels by 2030.
The research comes as countries, including the US and China meet in Bonn for the latest round of the UN climate change negotiations, to set out the elements of the next global climate agreement, to be agreed in Paris in 2015.
As part of the agreement countries have a deadline to set out their national climate action pledges – their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions – by March next year. The US and China will be closely watching each other’s proposals, while observers see the co-ordinated effort the countries have show in recent months as a sign of positive momentum towards the new deal in 2015.
Climate Action Tracker’s research examined the action of both countries in their most energy-intensive sectors; electricity production, industry, buildings and transport.
They then compared the two countries and looked that what each country could achieve if they were to adopt global best practice in those areas, showing there are lessons the two countries could learn from one another.
Dr Niklas Höhne, of Ecofys:
We looked at how well both the US and China would do if they each adopted a ‘best of the two’ practice in electricity production, industry, buildings and transport. We found this, alone, would set them in a better direction. They could both learn from each other in most sectors.
If they did this, in relative terms, China could reduce emissions from its current policy projections by 1.2% in 2020 and 20% in 2030 – and 3.2% and 16% for the US.
And by going for global best practice the carbon savings could be even greater.
Both governments have managed to reduce their emissions for electricity production, but both are also expected to deploy more coal in the future – plans which remain incompatible with a 2ºC global warming limit.
With currently implemented policies, it appears that the share of coal in China is likely to be around 50% by 2050, whilst in the US coal is projected to make up around 35% of total energy production.
And while the deployment in renewable energy is also increasing in both countries, it is not happening fast enough.
The new research shows that if the US and China were to increase their share in renewables at around 1.3% per year – that’s the average trend seen in Germany and the UK – it could make a difference.
Buildings also create a significant amount of emissions. In China, there are large amounts of buildings being erected annually, which gives the opportunity to make them energy efficient from the start, and both the US and China have minimum energy performance standards for new and refurbished buildings.
Car ownership is ten times as high in the USA compared to China, but the difference is declining. If both countries were to implement China’s vehicle emissions standards – which are slightly stronger – emissions reductions would be seen.
By moving to globally best practice – e.g. emission standard for cars as in the EU, increase of share of electric cars as in Norway – this reduction would be bigger.
The US and China have made some efforts to lightly coordinate their policies (such as their agreement on HFCs and announcements on mitigation).
However, there is still a long way to go.
According to the IEA, the US must decarbonise by 80% by 2030 , China by 60-70%. Yet current policies in both countries are inadequate to meet the necessary limit; the US has pledged to reduce coal by about 20% and China is stabilising coal use by 2030.
Both of these are far from the deep reductions needed.
asmallplanet.wordpress.com 